The report, in full.
Cedar & Rye, Portland, OR — full service, 74 seats, dinner-only plus weekend brunch. Eighteen dishes, 90 days of sales. Cedar & Rye is invented; the arithmetic is real, and this is exactly what lands in your inbox within two working days of uploading your export.
Matrix thresholds: dishes above $14.52 margin earn more than average; dishes above 658 units (the 70% popularity cut-off) sell more than average.
All 18 dishes, plotted
| Dish | Price | Plate cost | Margin | Units / 90d | Quadrant |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cast-iron ribeye, 12 oz | $46.00 | $18.40 | $27.60 | 980 | Star |
| Cedar-plank salmon | $32.00 | $9.60 | $22.40 | 1,240 | Star |
| Buttermilk fried chicken | $24.00 | $6.00 | $18.00 | 1,580 | Star |
| Braised short rib | $34.00 | $11.90 | $22.10 | 860 | Star |
| Mushroom risotto | $23.00 | $5.75 | $17.25 | 720 | Star |
| House burger, aged cheddar | $19.00 | $6.27 | $12.73 | 2,100 | Plowhorse |
| Ricotta hotcakes | $15.00 | $3.30 | $11.70 | 1,420 | Plowhorse |
| Caesar salad, grilled chicken | $16.00 | $3.20 | $12.80 | 1,330 | Plowhorse |
| Clam chowder, sourdough | $12.00 | $3.00 | $9.00 | 1,150 | Plowhorse |
| Truffle fries | $11.00 | $2.42 | $8.58 | 1,890 | Plowhorse |
| Chocolate rye cake | $11.00 | $2.53 | $8.47 | 870 | Plowhorse |
| Steak & eggs (brunch) | $26.00 | $10.40 | $15.60 | 640 | Puzzle |
| Duck confit | $31.00 | $10.85 | $20.15 | 310 | Puzzle |
| Lamb chops, mint chimichurri | $38.00 | $15.20 | $22.80 | 290 | Puzzle |
| Charred broccolini | $9.00 | $2.25 | $6.75 | 540 | Dog |
| Seasonal sorbet trio | $9.00 | $1.80 | $7.20 | 460 | Dog |
| Oyster half dozen | $21.00 | $8.40 | $12.60 | 380 | Dog |
| Vegan grain bowl | $17.00 | $4.25 | $12.75 | 150 | Dog |
Reprice the house burger from $19 to $21. It is still the cheapest entrée on the menu.
Five moves, ranked. Each with the math.
Never more than five. Together they are worth $45,566 a year if all five land — about 3.2% of this restaurant's annual food sales, which against a 3–5% net margin is close to doubling the bottom line.
House burger: $19 → $21
The burger sells 2,100 times in 90 days — 8,400 a year at the same pace — and at 33% plate cost it is priced like it is still 2021. It remains the cheapest entrée at $21, so we assume no volume loss. $2.00 × 8,400 = $16,800 a year.
Lamb chops: move them, rename them, train on them
They earn $22.80 a plate and sell 290 times in 90 days because they sit at the bottom of the entrée list under a flat name. Move them top-right on the entrée page, name the farm, and put them on the pre-shift recommend list. Repositioned puzzles typically gain about half again in volume: 290 → 435 per 90 days. 145 extra units × 4 quarters × $22.80 ≈ $13,224 a year.
Seasonal sorbet trio: off the menu
460 sales in 90 days at $7.20 margin, and it ties up freezer space and prep. Remove it. Expect about half its buyers to take the chocolate rye cake ($8.47 margin) instead — the rest skip dessert either way. 230 units × 4 quarters × $8.47 ≈ $7,792 a year, plus the prep time back.
Ricotta hotcakes: $15 → $16
The brunch staple, 1,420 plates in 90 days, unchanged through two menu prints. Nobody chooses a brunch spot over a dollar. $1.00 × 1,420 × 4 quarters = $5,680 a year.
Clam chowder: plate cost $3.00 → $2.55
The sourdough portion is oversized — it comes back to the dish pit — and the cream supplier is above market. Smaller bread, new cream quote, same bowl, same price. $0.45 × 1,150 × 4 quarters = $2,070 a year.
Where each dish sits on the printed menu
Entrées page
Top-right, first read: cast-iron ribeye and cedar-plank salmon — the two highest-margin stars. Centre: fried chicken, short rib, risotto. Repositioned: lamb chops move to the top-right pair with a boxed treatment and the farm name; duck confit moves up one slot with a one-line description.
Burger: stays where it is — volume is not its problem — at the new $21. Oysters: off the printed page, onto the chalkboard as a special while the margin is below average.
Brunch, sides, desserts
Brunch: hotcakes anchor the top of the brunch list at $16; steak & eggs gets the boxed treatment — $15.60 a plate deserves better than 640 sales.
Dogs with a purpose stay: the vegan grain bowl (menu-marked vegan — dietary coverage earns covers) and the charred broccolini (the only green side) both remain, deliberately. A dog that serves the dining room is a cost of hospitality, not a mistake.
Desserts: sorbet trio removed; rye cake and one rotating dessert carry the page.
Thirty days after the new menu
This 90-day window is the baseline. When the reprinted menu goes live, Cedar & Rye sends the next 30 days of exports and we compare like for like: burger volume (did the $2 hold?), lamb-chop mix (did the box work?), dessert attachment after the sorbet came off.
The tracking page reports actual contribution-margin lift against the $45,566 projection — measured, not estimated — plus weekly prime-cost movement. Weekly tracking catches a cost problem roughly three times faster than waiting for the monthly P&L.
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